• MAG7 vs. S&P 493 – April 7 → August 12, 2025

    The market picture is clear: The big ones are carrying, the broad base is providing limited support. Here's an X-ray of the last 4.5 months

    MAG7 (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA)
    • Index Weight: ~35.4% (record high)
    • Performance: +10.7%
    • Earnings growth +28% in Q1, continued strong in Q2
    • Still priced in with the "AI + quality growth" narrative
    • Risk: High valuation → susceptibility to surprises

    S&P 493 (Remainder)
    • Performance: +4.1% (RSP index)
    • Breadth: 55% at 200-day moving average
    • Earnings growth, but above-index momentum is limited
    • Valuation is more reasonable → potential for "catch-up"

    Overall Index (S&P 500)
    • Performance: +8.3%
    • P/E: 22.1x → Above 5- and 10-year moving averages
    • Q2 earnings growth: 11.8% (mega-caps again the driving force)

    Reading:
    While the MAG7 rebounded ~35% from its April 7 lows, the broad base remains moderate. Most of the index's rise comes from giants. Concentration risk is high → the impact is disproportionate, both in the uptrend and downtrend.

    Tactical Recommendation:

    - Strengthen the Majors: Include companies with growing profits and strong balance sheets (excess cash) within the MAG7 in your main portfolio.

    - Layer the Rest: Add small-medium weightings to sectors (healthcare, select industrials, some defensive stocks) within the 493 whose earnings expectations have been revised upwards and whose prices remain reasonable.

    - Divide Risk: Don't concentrate your investment solely on giant stocks; Diversify with products like the equal-weight index (RSP) or the S&P 500 – Excluding Top 10 Stocks.

    - Follow the Macro: Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, and global trade news can quickly change the direction of mega-cap stocks in particular.

    This is not investment advice, but for informational purposes only!!!
    #MAG7 #SP500 #Finance #StockMarket #Investment #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #Investor #BorsaIstanbul #NASDAQ #WallStreet #Economy #FinancialLiteracy #Index #InvestmentStrategy #Portfolio
    📊 MAG7 vs. S&P 493 – April 7 → August 12, 2025 The market picture is clear: The big ones are carrying, the broad base is providing limited support. Here's an X-ray of the last 4.5 months ⬇️ 🔹 MAG7 (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA) • Index Weight: ~35.4% 📈 (record high) • Performance: +10.7% • Earnings growth +28% in Q1, continued strong in Q2 • Still priced in with the "AI + quality growth" narrative • Risk: High valuation → susceptibility to surprises 🔹 S&P 493 (Remainder) • Performance: +4.1% (RSP index) • Breadth: 55% at 200-day moving average • Earnings growth, but above-index momentum is limited • Valuation is more reasonable → potential for "catch-up" 🔹 Overall Index (S&P 500) • Performance: +8.3% • P/E: 22.1x → Above 5- and 10-year moving averages • Q2 earnings growth: 11.8% (mega-caps again the driving force) 📌 Reading: While the MAG7 rebounded ~35% from its April 7 lows, the broad base remains moderate. Most of the index's rise comes from giants. Concentration risk is high → the impact is disproportionate, both in the uptrend and downtrend. 📌 Tactical Recommendation: - Strengthen the Majors: Include companies with growing profits and strong balance sheets (excess cash) within the MAG7 in your main portfolio. - Layer the Rest: Add small-medium weightings to sectors (healthcare, select industrials, some defensive stocks) within the 493 whose earnings expectations have been revised upwards and whose prices remain reasonable. - Divide Risk: Don't concentrate your investment solely on giant stocks; Diversify with products like the equal-weight index (RSP) or the S&P 500 – Excluding Top 10 Stocks. - Follow the Macro: Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, and global trade news can quickly change the direction of mega-cap stocks in particular. This is not investment advice, but for informational purposes only!!! #MAG7 #SP500 #Finance #StockMarket #Investment #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #Investor #BorsaIstanbul #NASDAQ #WallStreet #Economy #FinancialLiteracy #Index #InvestmentStrategy #Portfolio
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  • Why does the AI → Quantum → Space chain make sense?

    AI (Artificial Intelligence)
    It's the hottest story in the investment world today. However, the evolution of technology requires the next "infrastructure leap." This is where quantum computing comes into play.

    ⚛ Quantum Computing
    It has the potential to increase processing speed and data processing capacity millions of times over. This revolution could fundamentally change AI, drug discovery, financial modeling, and energy optimization.

    Space Sector
    It has the power to create new economic areas in data transmission (satellite internet, quantum communication), energy (solar energy transfer from space), mining (asteroid mining), and defense.

    Market Situation

    Quantum: Few publicly traded "pure" players (Rigetti, IonQ, QBTS), but giants like Microsoft, Google, and IBM are investing aggressively.

    Space: SpaceX is private, but Rocket Lab (RKLB), Maxar, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman stand out on the public side.

    Risk vs. Return
    High-risk/long-term areas. Volatility is high, but so is the potential.
    Some of the positive momentum in AI may shift to the Quantum breakthrough and Space Economy boom period between 2027 and 2035.

    Strategy Recommendation

    1️⃣ Short-Medium Term: Generate revenue from the AI ecosystem (GPU, data center, software).
    2️⃣ Medium-Long Term: Gradually increase Quantum & space investments.
    3️⃣ ETF + Leading Company Mix: Thematic ETF + selected leaders to diversify risk.

    This is not investment advice, it is for informational purposes only!!!
    #AI #QuantumComputing #SpaceEconomy #Investing #StockMarket #Technology #Investment #FutureOfTech #Innovation #Stock Market #ArtificialIntelligence #Space
    🚀 Why does the AI → Quantum → Space chain make sense? 🌌 🤖 AI (Artificial Intelligence) It's the hottest story in the investment world today. However, the evolution of technology requires the next "infrastructure leap." This is where quantum computing comes into play. ⚛ Quantum Computing It has the potential to increase processing speed and data processing capacity millions of times over. This revolution could fundamentally change AI, drug discovery, financial modeling, and energy optimization. 🪐 Space Sector It has the power to create new economic areas in data transmission (satellite internet, quantum communication), energy (solar energy transfer from space), mining (asteroid mining), and defense. 📊 Market Situation Quantum: Few publicly traded "pure" players (Rigetti, IonQ, QBTS), but giants like Microsoft, Google, and IBM are investing aggressively. Space: SpaceX is private, but Rocket Lab (RKLB), Maxar, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman stand out on the public side. 🎯 Risk vs. Return High-risk/long-term areas. Volatility is high, but so is the potential. Some of the positive momentum in AI may shift to the Quantum breakthrough and Space Economy boom period between 2027 and 2035. 💡 Strategy Recommendation 1️⃣ Short-Medium Term: Generate revenue from the AI ecosystem (GPU, data center, software). 2️⃣ Medium-Long Term: Gradually increase Quantum & space investments. 3️⃣ ETF + Leading Company Mix: Thematic ETF + selected leaders to diversify risk. This is not investment advice, it is for informational purposes only!!! #AI #QuantumComputing #SpaceEconomy #Investing #StockMarket #Technology #Investment #FutureOfTech #Innovation #Stock Market #ArtificialIntelligence #Space
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  • DA Davidson downgrades $IONQ:

    Buy → Neutral, target: $35

    Analyst: “The quantum revolution is coming, but IonQ’s short-term outlook is murky. The roadmap is unclear, and risks have increased.”

    Investment continues, but visibility is low → A “stay on the sidelines” position has been adopted.

    Long-term is exciting, short-term is a question mark...

    Not investment advice!!!
    #IONQ #QuantumComputing #Quantum #StockAnalysis #StockMarket
    🧠 DA Davidson downgrades $IONQ: 🔻 Buy → Neutral, target: $35 🗣️ Analyst: “The quantum revolution is coming, but IonQ’s short-term outlook is murky. The roadmap is unclear, and risks have increased.” 🚧 Investment continues, but visibility is low → A “stay on the sidelines” position has been adopted. ➡️ Long-term is exciting, short-term is a question mark... Not investment advice!!! #IONQ #QuantumComputing #Quantum #StockAnalysis #StockMarket
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  • Oscar ($OSCR), like its competitors, has been negatively impacted by the rise in the US morbidity rate.

    Morbidity refers to the average health deterioration in the US population.

    While the exact cause is unknown, Americans are now less healthy.

    The impact is reflected in the "Medical loss ratio" line on the income statement. This means the company is now paying more premiums back to policyholders as claims.

    I thought morbidity could be a problem, but Oscar could manage it with artificial intelligence applications.

    It seems I was wrong, at least for now.

    I was predicting OSCR could better select and price patients with AI, but that's been a lie for now.

    Oscar Health 2025 Q2 Results Announced!
    Oscar Health announced its Q2 2025 financial results. While revenue and EPS fell short of expectations, the company maintained its year-end revenue guidance. Here are the details:

    Revenue: 2.86 Billion (Expected 2.92 Billion)
    Earnings per Share (EPS): -0.89 (Expected -0.84)
    Memberships: 2.03 Million (+29% YoY increase)

    Annual revenue guidance remained unchanged at 12.0 Billion - 12.2 Billion. The company stated that it experienced a loss in the quarter due to increased risk adjustment costs in the insurance market.

    CEO Mark Bertolini: "We believe the individual market has long-term potential and that the future is in healthcare."

    #OscarHealth #OSCR #Finance #StockMarket #Technology #Healthcare #Investment #Economy
    Oscar ($OSCR), like its competitors, has been negatively impacted by the rise in the US morbidity rate. Morbidity refers to the average health deterioration in the US population. While the exact cause is unknown, Americans are now less healthy. The impact is reflected in the "Medical loss ratio" line on the income statement. This means the company is now paying more premiums back to policyholders as claims. I thought morbidity could be a problem, but Oscar could manage it with artificial intelligence applications. It seems I was wrong, at least for now. I was predicting OSCR could better select and price patients with AI, but that's been a lie for now. 📈 Oscar Health 2025 Q2 Results Announced! 📉 Oscar Health announced its Q2 2025 financial results. While revenue and EPS fell short of expectations, the company maintained its year-end revenue guidance. Here are the details: 🔹 Revenue: 2.86 Billion (Expected 2.92 Billion) 🔴 🔹 Earnings per Share (EPS): -0.89 (Expected -0.84) 🔴 🔹 Memberships: 2.03 Million (+29% YoY increase) Annual revenue guidance remained unchanged at 12.0 Billion - 12.2 Billion. The company stated that it experienced a loss in the quarter due to increased risk adjustment costs in the insurance market. CEO Mark Bertolini: "We believe the individual market has long-term potential and that the future is in healthcare." #OscarHealth #OSCR #Finance #StockMarket #Technology #Healthcare #Investment #Economy
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  • Novo Nordisk's Q2 earnings report fell short of expectations, but sales of its weight-loss drug Wegovy were impressive!
    However, due to competition and slowing GLP-1 growth, the company lowered its full-year guidance and is considering a CEO change.
    #NovoNordisk #NVO #StockMarket #Finance #Wegovy #Ozempic #EarningsReport
    Novo Nordisk's Q2 earnings report fell short of expectations, but sales of its weight-loss drug Wegovy were impressive! 🟢 However, due to competition and slowing GLP-1 growth, the company lowered its full-year guidance and is considering a CEO change. 📉 #NovoNordisk #NVO #StockMarket #Finance #Wegovy #Ozempic #EarningsReport
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