• MAG7 vs. S&P 493 – April 7 → August 12, 2025

    The market picture is clear: The big ones are carrying, the broad base is providing limited support. Here's an X-ray of the last 4.5 months

    MAG7 (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA)
    • Index Weight: ~35.4% (record high)
    • Performance: +10.7%
    • Earnings growth +28% in Q1, continued strong in Q2
    • Still priced in with the "AI + quality growth" narrative
    • Risk: High valuation → susceptibility to surprises

    S&P 493 (Remainder)
    • Performance: +4.1% (RSP index)
    • Breadth: 55% at 200-day moving average
    • Earnings growth, but above-index momentum is limited
    • Valuation is more reasonable → potential for "catch-up"

    Overall Index (S&P 500)
    • Performance: +8.3%
    • P/E: 22.1x → Above 5- and 10-year moving averages
    • Q2 earnings growth: 11.8% (mega-caps again the driving force)

    Reading:
    While the MAG7 rebounded ~35% from its April 7 lows, the broad base remains moderate. Most of the index's rise comes from giants. Concentration risk is high → the impact is disproportionate, both in the uptrend and downtrend.

    Tactical Recommendation:

    - Strengthen the Majors: Include companies with growing profits and strong balance sheets (excess cash) within the MAG7 in your main portfolio.

    - Layer the Rest: Add small-medium weightings to sectors (healthcare, select industrials, some defensive stocks) within the 493 whose earnings expectations have been revised upwards and whose prices remain reasonable.

    - Divide Risk: Don't concentrate your investment solely on giant stocks; Diversify with products like the equal-weight index (RSP) or the S&P 500 – Excluding Top 10 Stocks.

    - Follow the Macro: Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, and global trade news can quickly change the direction of mega-cap stocks in particular.

    This is not investment advice, but for informational purposes only!!!
    #MAG7 #SP500 #Finance #StockMarket #Investment #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #Investor #BorsaIstanbul #NASDAQ #WallStreet #Economy #FinancialLiteracy #Index #InvestmentStrategy #Portfolio
    📊 MAG7 vs. S&P 493 – April 7 → August 12, 2025 The market picture is clear: The big ones are carrying, the broad base is providing limited support. Here's an X-ray of the last 4.5 months ⬇️ 🔹 MAG7 (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA) • Index Weight: ~35.4% 📈 (record high) • Performance: +10.7% • Earnings growth +28% in Q1, continued strong in Q2 • Still priced in with the "AI + quality growth" narrative • Risk: High valuation → susceptibility to surprises 🔹 S&P 493 (Remainder) • Performance: +4.1% (RSP index) • Breadth: 55% at 200-day moving average • Earnings growth, but above-index momentum is limited • Valuation is more reasonable → potential for "catch-up" 🔹 Overall Index (S&P 500) • Performance: +8.3% • P/E: 22.1x → Above 5- and 10-year moving averages • Q2 earnings growth: 11.8% (mega-caps again the driving force) 📌 Reading: While the MAG7 rebounded ~35% from its April 7 lows, the broad base remains moderate. Most of the index's rise comes from giants. Concentration risk is high → the impact is disproportionate, both in the uptrend and downtrend. 📌 Tactical Recommendation: - Strengthen the Majors: Include companies with growing profits and strong balance sheets (excess cash) within the MAG7 in your main portfolio. - Layer the Rest: Add small-medium weightings to sectors (healthcare, select industrials, some defensive stocks) within the 493 whose earnings expectations have been revised upwards and whose prices remain reasonable. - Divide Risk: Don't concentrate your investment solely on giant stocks; Diversify with products like the equal-weight index (RSP) or the S&P 500 – Excluding Top 10 Stocks. - Follow the Macro: Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, and global trade news can quickly change the direction of mega-cap stocks in particular. This is not investment advice, but for informational purposes only!!! #MAG7 #SP500 #Finance #StockMarket #Investment #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #Investor #BorsaIstanbul #NASDAQ #WallStreet #Economy #FinancialLiteracy #Index #InvestmentStrategy #Portfolio
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  • $CELH | Celsius Holdings Q2 25 Earnings

    Revenue: $739.3M (Considered: $654.3M) +84% YoY
    EPS (Adjusted): $0.47 (Considered: $0.24) +68% YoY
    EBITDA: $210.3M +109% YoY

    US Ready-to-Energy Drink Market Share: 17.3% (+180bps)
    CELSIUS: 11% (-130bps)
    Alani Nu: 6.3% (+310bps)

    Retail Sales Growth (YoY):
    CELSIUS: +3%
    Alani Nu: +129%
    Total Portfolio: +29%

    Revenue Breakdown:
    North America: $714.5M (+87%)
    International: $24.8M (+27%)

    CEO: We're shaping the category with Celsius and Alani Nu. Sugar-free, functional energy is our responsibility!

    #CELH #Earnings #Celsius #AlaniNu #EnergyDrink #BalanceSheet #FinancialData #Investment
    📊 $CELH | Celsius Holdings Q2 25 Earnings 🔥 🚀 Revenue: $739.3M (Considered: $654.3M) 🟢 +84% YoY 💵 EPS (Adjusted): $0.47 (Considered: $0.24) 🟢 +68% YoY 📦 EBITDA: $210.3M ➕ +109% YoY 📈 US Ready-to-Energy Drink Market Share: 17.3% (+180bps) ▫️ CELSIUS: 11% (-130bps) ▫️ Alani Nu: 6.3% (+310bps) 🛒 Retail Sales Growth (YoY): ▫️ CELSIUS: +3% ▫️ Alani Nu: +129% ▫️ Total Portfolio: +29% 🌎 Revenue Breakdown: ▫️ North America: $714.5M (+87%) ▫️ International: $24.8M (+27%) 🎯 CEO: We're shaping the category with Celsius and Alani Nu. Sugar-free, functional energy is our responsibility! #CELH #Earnings #Celsius #AlaniNu #EnergyDrink #BalanceSheet #FinancialData #Investment
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  • Unfortunately, a lackluster earnings report for AMD.

    I was afraid of weak EPS, and it came true.

    At least there are positive signals on the forward guidance side. However, when expectations are set high, high price volatility is inevitable.

    If we hold above $170, perhaps even close the week above this level, we will have survived with minimal damage.

    The market loves to exaggerate.

    Conversely, if a correction is possible, a dip to $140-$150 could be a buying opportunity for those looking to add to their portfolio.

    Here are my key points:

    • Q3 guidance does not include the MI308 revenues planned for sale to China. The sale is still awaiting approval.
    However, there is a large amount of equipment in stock, ready for immediate shipment.

    • We still haven't seen the expected AI boom. Lisa Su points to the MI350 ramp-up for this. The market and investors now want to see results.
    The second half of 2025 is critical.
    📉 Unfortunately, a lackluster earnings report for AMD. I was afraid of weak EPS, and it came true. At least there are positive signals on the forward guidance side. However, when expectations are set high, high price volatility is inevitable. If we hold above $170, perhaps even close the week above this level, we will have survived with minimal damage. The market loves to exaggerate. Conversely, if a correction is possible, a dip to $140-$150 could be a buying opportunity for those looking to add to their portfolio. 📢 Here are my key points: • Q3 guidance does not include the MI308 revenues planned for sale to China. The sale is still awaiting approval. However, there is a large amount of equipment in stock, ready for immediate shipment. • We still haven't seen the expected AI boom. Lisa Su points to the MI350 ramp-up for this. The market and investors now want to see results. The second half of 2025 is critical.
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