The Atlanta Fed's Core Sticky CPI data has shown a sharp increase since Independence Day. The rise in these "sticky" items, where prices change more slowly, suggests that inflation could be more persistent. Analysts are closely watching how this data will affect markets. #Inflation #Economy #Fed #CPI #Market #Investment #RBAdvisors

$CRCL | Circle Internet Q2’25 Summary • Revenue: $658M 🟢 (Est. $644.7M) | +53% YoY • EPS: -$0.18 🔴 (Est. $0.34) → non-cash expenses, largely driven by the IPO; Net Loss -$482M (including $591M IPO-related charges) USDC & Operations • USDC in circulation: $61.3B (+90% YoY) — Aug 10: $65.2B • Avg USDC: $61.0B (+86% YoY) • Market share: 28% (+595 bps YoY) • USDC on platform: $6.0B (+924% YoY) • Meaningful wallets: 5.7M (+68% YoY) Profitability • Adj. EBITDA: $126M (+52% YoY), margin 50% (+463 bps) 🟢 • RLDC: $251M (+38% YoY); margin 38% (-408 bps) → to watch Guidance • USDC growth: ~40% CAGR (multi-year) • FY25 Other Rev: $75–85M | FY25 RLDC margin: 36–38% • FY25 Adj. Opex: $475–490M Strategy / Corporate • $1.2B IPO completed; $583M net cash • Circle Payments Network (May): 100+ institution pipeline • Arc: L1 for stablecoin finance (public testnet fall) • Partnerships: Binance, Corpay, FIS, Fiserv, OKX • GENIUS Act enacted → Federal stablecoin framework in the US CEO – Jeremy Allaire: IPO marks critical turning point for Circle and stablecoin adoption; cross-industry interest accelerates. My comment: Strong outlook: USDC volume & market share accelerating; core profitability (Adj. EBITDA, 50% margin) healthy. Red dot: EPS/Net loss largely a non-cash accounting impact from the IPO; not a sign of operational weakness. 3 key points in focus: (1) Is USDC circulation growth sustainable? (2) Is the RLDC margin reversing from 38%? (3) Actual adoption/integration speed in Payments Network & Arc. Thesis: Regulation clarified with the GENIUS Act + institutional partnerships → Increases revenue visibility in 2H25. Risks: Crypto volume cycle, Tether competition, maintaining OPEX discipline. Not investment advice!!! #CRCL #USDC #Stablecoin #Crypto #Fintech #Earnings #Web3 #Payments #Blockchain

📊 MAG7 vs. S&P 493 – April 7 → August 12, 2025 The market picture is clear: The big ones are carrying, the broad base is providing limited support. Here's an X-ray of the last 4.5 months ⬇️ 🔹 MAG7 (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA) • Index Weight: ~35.4% 📈 (record high) • Performance: +10.7% • Earnings growth +28% in Q1, continued strong in Q2 • Still priced in with the "AI + quality growth" narrative • Risk: High valuation → susceptibility to surprises 🔹 S&P 493 (Remainder) • Performance: +4.1% (RSP index) • Breadth: 55% at 200-day moving average • Earnings growth, but above-index momentum is limited • Valuation is more reasonable → potential for "catch-up" 🔹 Overall Index (S&P 500) • Performance: +8.3% • P/E: 22.1x → Above 5- and 10-year moving averages • Q2 earnings growth: 11.8% (mega-caps again the driving force) 📌 Reading: While the MAG7 rebounded ~35% from its April 7 lows, the broad base remains moderate. Most of the index's rise comes from giants. Concentration risk is high → the impact is disproportionate, both in the uptrend and downtrend. 📌 Tactical Recommendation: - Strengthen the Majors: Include companies with growing profits and strong balance sheets (excess cash) within the MAG7 in your main portfolio. - Layer the Rest: Add small-medium weightings to sectors (healthcare, select industrials, some defensive stocks) within the 493 whose earnings expectations have been revised upwards and whose prices remain reasonable. - Divide Risk: Don't concentrate your investment solely on giant stocks; Diversify with products like the equal-weight index (RSP) or the S&P 500 – Excluding Top 10 Stocks. - Follow the Macro: Fed interest rate decisions, inflation data, and global trade news can quickly change the direction of mega-cap stocks in particular. This is not investment advice, but for informational purposes only!!! #MAG7 #SP500 #Finance #StockMarket #Investment #Stocks #MarketAnalysis #Investor #BorsaIstanbul #NASDAQ #WallStreet #Economy #FinancialLiteracy #Index #InvestmentStrategy #Portfolio

As the rally in technology stocks boosts market sentiment, investors continue to assess the impact of Trump's new tariffs. 🔹 S&P 500 futures: +0.3% 🔹 Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.3% 🔹 Dow futures: +0.2% 📊 Bond Market 10Y return: 4.26% (flat) 2Y return: +1bp ➡ 3.75% 📌 Thursday Summary S&P 500: -0.08% (Eli Lilly earnings pressured) Nasdaq: +0.35% 🆙 Mag-7: +0.40% 📈 (All-time high) 💬 Deutsche Bank – Jim Reid: “Trump’s chip tax exemptions and the easing of Russia-Ukraine tensions have tempered optimism. Tariffs have taken effect, but the market reaction has been weak.” 📰 Other Developments Trump tariffs officially began last night Fed Governor Waller is emerging as a candidate for chairman after Powell Today's data agenda is quiet; St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak #SP500 #Nasdaq #DowJones #TrumpTariffs #BondMarket #Fed #Markets

#GDPNow GDPNow has raised its Q3 growth forecast from +2.1% to +2.5%. The growth rate of the US economy, or real GDP (GDP) growth rate, is one of the most important indicators of economic activity. However, official growth figures are often released with a lag. That's where the GDPNow model, developed by the Atlanta Fed, comes in! 🏦✨ GDPNow uses available economic data for a given period to generate a "nowcast" economic growth forecast before the official release.